Chapter 666: Apportionment of risk
Chapter 651 Apportioning Risks
London, still thick fog. Setting foot in this fantastic city again, William I’s mood was exceptionally different.
Anglo-Prussian royal family relations are still good, both sides are children’s relatives, William I’s son married Queen Victoria’s daughter.
William I’s visit, naturally, was received by the British royal family’s high profile reception. However, the British were enthusiastic, but did not let William I feel a trace of warmth.
It couldn’t be helped that the figures of the top officials of the British government didn’t appear in the crowd of the reception. There was no doubt that the London government did not think much of his arrival.
In diplomacy this is a commonly used tactic, with the help of which to show political positions, pressure pressure, but still very effective.
Unlike the first Russo-Prussian War, the London government was contributing money and effort, in order to pull the plug at the expense of offending the Russians blockade of the Baltic Sea, laying the foundation for Prussia to win the war.
The Russian Empire, now in decline, was no longer able to threaten Britain’s interests. In its place were two new threats, France and Austria, and continued suppression of Russia was no longer necessary.
Perhaps in the view of the government in London, the Russian-Austrian alliance had broken down. Let the Russian Empire to maintain a certain strength, can be behind the part of Austria’s power to hold, so that they can not be fully committed to the European continental hegemony in favor of the European continent to maintain a balance.
The Puppo Federation wanted to get the British support in the war, there was no international situation to do can be utilized, can only take the interests of talking.
The welcome banquet was held normally, the participants in the banquet are a group of aristocrats, the British government high level still did not appear.
Inside the Prime Minister’s residence on Downing Street, a cabinet meeting was underway. It is not that the London government is inefficient, mainly because William I came too fast.
In the case of the Queen not caring about things, the power of the British cabinet is very large, and the workload is naturally very large.
The new round of the Russo-Prussian War, the London government did pay attention to it, but after all, it had not yet been fought.
War is not child’s play, according to the normal situation, drag on for a few months, or one or two years, are normal.
Prime Minister Benjamin: “William I is already here, and the Russian Crown Prince will also arrive next month, we now need to make a choice.
For the sake of Britain, I hope that all of you can analyze rationally and seize the greatest benefits for the Empire.”
The victory or defeat of this Russo-Prussian War was no longer as crucial to the government in London as it had been last time. No matter who wins or loses, the pattern of the three empires dominating the world will not change.
Foreign Minister Edward: “The one who should be most concerned about this now should be Austria, the victory or defeat of the Prussian War will determine who their potential future rivals will be.
Prussia and Russia against each other is actually a good choice. Now that the Austrians are letting the Russo-Prussian War break out, it seems that the government in Vienna is again not happy with the status quo.
In recent years, Austria’s power has grown very fast. The economy, in particular, has been outstanding.
In addition to military strength, Austria has fully surpassed France. If the French are unable to digest the Italian regions for a long time, the strength of France and Austria will sooner or later lose balance.”
Now France and Austria are the enemies of Britain, nothing else but strength. If France and Austria have the strength to threaten the British, they are the enemies of the London government.
Britain, France and Austria alliance, that is for the common good. There is a paper in the covenant, can restrain the behavior of everyone, reduce the colonial conflict, save a lot of military expenditure.
Alliances are alliances, suppression and restrictions are still necessary. Limiting the power of France and Austria had become one of the core strategies of the London government.
Colonial Secretary Robert: “With the French digesting the Italian regions, the European continent would likewise be out of balance, only to become France overtaking Austria.
This is actually a false proposition. Whether France overwhelms Austria or Austria overtakes France, the power gap between them is not pulled apart in a day.
We had enough time to make strategic adjustments. The question now is the impending Russo-Prussian War, in whose interest is it more in our interest to have a victory?”
Robert was bullish on the French, all because of the confidence given by Napoleon.
The shadow left by the French army sweeping across the continent back then was too great, and even if the French army didn’t keep up with the pace in the new round of military changes, everyone still thought that the French army was number one in the world.
The performance of the French army in the First Near East War reinforced the British view. The slow replacement of weaponry and equipment, and the army’s training being stuck decades ago, were problems that everyone inadvertently overlooked.
The general international consensus was that the French Army was the world’s number one in combat effectiveness with equal numbers of troops.
According to the experience gained from the war against France, the best way to defeat the French was to spend more money and put in more troops.
The basis for people thinking that France and Austria were equal in strength was also based on this. The French army was more elite, the Austrians were more numerous and economically stronger, and they canceled each other out just enough to equalize.
Foreign Minister Edward: “The Austrians deliberately indulged the outbreak of Prussia and Russia, apparently seeking further territorial expansion.
Regardless of who wins or loses this war, the government of Vienna is the biggest victor. Geopolitics being what it is, after Prussia and Russia have split the spoils, there will be no one who can impede Austria’s expansion.
Some years ago, the French government was in constant internal strife, and only in the last two years, when Napoleon IV gradually assumed power, did the Paris government stabilize.
Because of their interests, the capitalists who had supported Napoleon III’s unification of the Italian regions in the front now stood against the Paris government, and were secretly financing Italian independence organizations.
With internal instability, the French had lost the ability to check and balance Austria, which was the main reason why the Vienna government dared to indulge in the outbreak of the Russo-Prussian War.
For the sake of continental balance, we must create another enemy for the Austrians to hold them back from behind, and both Prussia and Russia are alternatives.
In terms of development potential, the Russians are significantly more of a threat. Once we win this war, that unstoppable Russian Empire will be back again.
Perhaps they are too wounded after the war to fight for the European continent, but they will still threaten our interests in Central Asia and the Far East.”
In the time of Napoleon III, the Italian problem was not yet serious. By relying on superb political maneuvering, suppressing one wave and pulling in another, it was generally stable.
It was different when it was Napoleon IV’s turn, due to the fact that the previous Parisian government was busy with infighting and neglected domestic economic construction.
In particular, it formulated wrong economic policies, allowing the two sides of the market to merge into one. After opening up the market, the capitalists who supported the merger with France realized that they had been fooled.
What appeared to be a fair competition turned into an economic plundering of the Italian regions by France.
It was not that the Italian capitalists did not work hard, it was that the gap between the two sides of the industrial strength was too large, and it was not possible to catch up in a short period of time.
If only these problems, it is not intolerable, the bad luck is only small and medium-sized capitalists. The strong capitalists can replace the new equipment and regain competitiveness.
However, both the Italian region and France have a common problem – lack of resources.
In order to compete for resources, the capitalists had to do their own thing. There is no doubt that the Parisian government sat on its ass and made policies that favored the local capitalists.
Over and over again, grievances built up. Unwilling to be left alone, the capitalists slowly manipulated public opinion to stir up popular discontent with the French in an attempt to force the Paris government to give in.
The result was self-evident. Even if the French government wanted to make concessions, the capitalists in Paris would not agree.
In the last economic crisis, this contradiction was directly detonated. A part of the capitalists began to favor independence and preached nationalism in the Italian regions.
It was not only the capitalists who were dissatisfied with the French, but in fact the local aristocracy was equally dissatisfied. In the distribution of power by the French government, they got too little.
In spite of all the contradictions, no large-scale independence movement broke out in the Italian regions. The reason was simple: despite all the discomfort, the standard of living of the general public had improved.
It didn’t matter that the local economy wasn’t working, labor could be exported. We are all one country now, so going out to work is naturally not a problem.
Compared to the Italian region, France is properly overpaid. It’s also a win-win situation, with ordinary Italians getting more income and French capitalists getting cheap labor.
Some people gained and some people lost. Because of labor mobility, in just ten years, labor costs in the Italian region have doubled. This was more than enough to make the Italian regional capitalists gnash their teeth.
Finance Minister Balfour: “What can the Popo Federation give us? What can the Russians give us?
With all due respect, these two countries can bring us so little benefit. The mere check on Austria does not require our intervention at all; whoever wins is Austria’s enemy.
Now they are asking us for help, not for international diplomatic support, but more for money.
What determines whether this war is won or lost is not whether the Prussian and Russian armies are elite or not, but more on who can raise more money.
It’s easy to lend them money, but how do we get it back?
As much as we don’t want to admit it, we have to admit that we don’t have the ability to directly decide whether this war is won or lost.
If we place the wrong bet, we’ll end up losing our money. It’s hundreds of millions of pounds at stake and I’m against making a choice now.”
The word “money” is the essence of British diplomacy. It directly made Edward, the foreign minister who was inclined to support the Pupo Federation, shut his mouth.
There was no way around it, the risk was just too great. He didn’t even know what he should ask the Pupo Federation for to secure this debt.
After hesitating for a few moments of effort, Prime Minister Benjamin made a decision, ”First probe William I’s bottom to see how much leverage they have.
If the Pope Federation wants to win this war, they need the support of at least two major powers. If they can gain the support of Austria, or France, it is not impossible to issue war bonds for them.”
International debt was a risk that needed to be considered, even for the wealthy John Bull. They wouldn’t dare to gamble hundreds of millions of pounds directly without finding someone to share the risk.
Supporting the Russians was simply not in Benjamin’s consideration. The main reason was not the potential threat, but because of the money.
With the credibility of the Tsar’s government, he would be in over his head if he dared to lend money to the Russians.
Don’t consider the issue of collateral, even if a contract was signed, the same could be defaulted on. It’s not like the Royal Navy’s warships could go ashore, they were too little of a deterrent to the Russians.
(End of chapter)