Chapter 356: Talleyrand’s View of Diplomacy
Chapter 353 – Talleyrand’s View of Diplomacy
“Though I have no personal acquaintance with Prince Chartoreski, nevertheless a hint of his views on the two Tsars can indeed be smelled in his article published in The Economist.”
Arthur recalled Prince Czartoryski’s manuscript, “As a young tsar growing up at the Russian court, Alexander I was intent on pulling himself together, but wavered. Unlike his unfortunate father, Paul I, he was not impulsive and temperamental, but was taught by the Swiss democrat La Arpe to aspire to the high ideals of France in 1789.
As the son of Paul I., however, he could hardly escape the traditional nature of the tsars who had opened up the frontier. His bright blue eyes, his graceful and imposing figure, his high brow, his broad forehead, and his tight lips, all gave him the authority of a man who was full of spirit.
His robust physique and love of bravado would seem to induce him to accomplish the unfinished business of Ekaterina II. for Turkey, and to take advantage of the Danube’s ride along the waves to wash away the feelings of remorse which he has hitherto not been able to forget for his unwitting participation in the patricidal plot.”
Talleyrand nodded slightly at his words and said, “These words are quite objective, compared to Nicholas I, Alexander I, in addition to his naïve personality which is very appealing, also knows how to respect the natural order and existing principles of Europe.”
Arthur asked, “You have been mentioning this since just now, so what exactly is the natural order and existing principles of Europe.”
Talleyrand explained unhurriedly, “The so-called natural order and existing principles of Europe is that each country’s power can only operate within its strategic limits. The first to realize this was Cardinal Richelieu, who led France to greatness.
He warned Louis XIII on his deathbed: ‘Never invade Holland, it would only strengthen the uncontrollable English and would be the greatest folly.’
For France at the time, the secret of maintaining its position lay in two things.
The first: not to weaken Holland too much, and to let this group of maritime coachmen become an aid to hold England at bay; as long as Holland remained, France’s land hegemony could only be secure.
Second: to maintain the division of the German region in Central Europe and the Italian city-states in Southern Europe. As long as the trend of their unification was stopped, then the hegemony of France in Europe would be as stable as a mountain.
Unfortunately, however, Bishop Richelieu’s strategy for France was shattered by the short-sightedness of Louis XIV. By joining forces with England to crush the Dutch, he pushed the limits of France’s strategy. If we look at it in the context of a decade or two, the conquest of Holland by France may seem to have led to the expansion of our national power.
In reality, however, we lost more than we gained. Without the Dutch to hold the Britons back, France lost its dominance of the European seas. So, from then on, all that France could hope to gain was the land hegemony of Europe.”
When Arthur heard this, he just held a spoon and stirred the soup bowl in front of him, “I’m not a diplomat, so I can’t deeply understand your words. But from the perspective of a history undergraduate, you do have an interesting view. However, by telling me all these little personal secrets, aren’t you worried that I will turn around and bring this passage to our Foreign Ministry? Or would you prefer that I do so?”
Talleyrand raised one eyebrow and pursed his lips, “Arthur, on the one hand, you think too little of yourself. You’re more than just a history undergrad to me, and I’m not telling you this solely for the sake of storytelling, and I’m sure you understand it deeply.
But on the other hand, you take yourself too seriously. I don’t think you will have any effect on your Foreign Secretary, Viscount Palmerston, if you take these words to the Foreign Office. His hatred of France is deeply rooted, and at the same time he is very jealous of the expansion of Austrian power in Central and Southern Europe.
But I find it strange that he seems to be the only one who is not concerned about the national strategy of the Russians as they continue to move westward and try to control Eastern Europe and Western Asia. If he was concerned that support for Poland would lead to the emergence of a pro-French regime there, then he could have discussed the issue with me face-to-face.
If we can talk about Belgium, why can’t we all sit down in peace and talk about Poland? Until now he did not understand the concept of strategic limits, and that a strong Russia is far more appalling than a strong France.
He was so concerned with the limits of struggle at the tactical level that he neglected to compete and think at the strategic level. You should know that the center of the world will always be on the continental island of Europe and Asia, due to demographic, economic, historical and cultural factors.
The strategic limits of France are such that when France is strong, the limits of our control are limited to the Iberian Peninsula, the Apennines and the German plains. If it is farther than that, even if France can control it in a short time, this fragile control can be easily broken by external forces.
But not so with Russia, whose very geography dictates that it is the only country in the world that has a chance of being able to establish continental hegemony in Europe and Asia at the same time.”
Hearing Talleyrand’s words, Arthur looked at Talleyrand with a rather complicated mood.
Earlier when Prince Czartoryski had suggested in The Economist that a unified Prussia would threaten the European order, so it was necessary to maintain Poland’s independence in order to keep it in check, Arthur had already been quite surprised at the accuracy of this prophecy.
And now that Talleyrand was peddling the ‘Russian threat theory’ to his face, Arthur had to give a thumbs up to the brilliant vision of this group of diplomatic activists.
Still, before agreeing with Talleyrand, he intended to hear the exact reasons for the old cripple’s analysis.
Arthur asked, “Why do you say that?”
Talleyrand commented lightly, “I naturally have a basis for saying so. Although I don’t have any grudges against Russia, and even had a good friendship with their former Tsar Alexander I, my personal feelings cannot override the facts.
In my opinion, Russia’s geographic location and traditional values dictate that once Russia becomes powerful, it will become the most destabilizing factor in the entire Eurasian continent, and even in the world.
Its vastness, and even more so its high latitude, made it the only country in the world that could threaten both Northern Europe through its military presence on the Kola Peninsula and the German states of Central Europe through the Baltic Sea, and could cross the Caspian Sea to launch an attack on the Ottoman Empire’s Dardanelles and Bosphorus, as well as cross the Caucasus Mountains to attack the Persian kingdoms of Western Asia.
If it were strong enough, then even Central Asia, nestled at the foot of the Altai Mountains, and the Far East, below Siberia, would all be under its control. Worse, it also controls Alaska through the Bering Strait. If it can develop that place, then Britain’s presence in North America will have to be similarly threatened.”
Hearing this, Arthur just let out a soft laugh, “I can understand your concern, but it seems to me that Viscount Palmerston is obviously more worried about the other side of the English Channel than Alaska in the Bering Strait.” Talleyrand nodded, “So that’s the problem. He was so wary of France that he forgot that we were actually able to cooperate with each other. After the defeat of Holland, France had completely lost the possibility of dominating Europe on its own. And the devastation of the Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars that followed put our land hegemony in Europe in jeopardy.
And as for Britain, you do not seek to dominate the land mass of Europe. You clearly care more about protecting your trade routes than you do about carrying guns and fighting the continental nations. So, after all, you will have to find a reliable partner in Europe to work with in order to ensure that your influence in Europe does not continue to decline. But with all due respect, working with the Russians is clearly more dangerous than working with France. Especially, with Russia’s current Tsar Nicholas I.”
Arthur asked, “You have been mentioning that honorable Emperor’s Majesty at the court of St. Petersburg since just now, where exactly does your anxiety come from?”
Talleyrand picked up his napkin and wiped his hands, “Arthur, you’re a Scotland Yard officer, so it’s fine if you don’t know anything about the movers and shakers of Europe, but a man like me has to know everything about the guys who can sway the policies of nations. So, I’m sure your Foreign Secretary, Viscount Palmerston, does as well.
Nicholas I had a clearer purpose, a tougher will, and a tougher and more iron-willed hand than his brother Alexander I. He was a much more powerful man than Nicholas. In other words, he was more tsarist than Alexander I. Unfortunately for him, the Decembrists’ revolt broke out at the beginning of his reign. So this added a touch of sensitivity and suspicion to his character.
The Austrian Metternich, who was also determined to preserve the monarchy, was far better to deal with than this Tsar. If Britain does not intend to intervene in the Polish question, well, I accept. But I would also like to share with you here a little piece of news that I have just received, which will also help to corroborate my point of view.”
Arthur smiled and asked, “Would it be difficult for you to divulge this information?”
Talleyrand took a sip of his wine, “No. Anyway, even if I don’t tell you, you’ll know in a couple days.”
Arthur winked and hinted, “Then I’d be obliged if you would, your information might help me in some way in my subsequent discussions with the Cabinet about the assassination.”
“That would be best.”
Talleyrand spoke, “I just received news yesterday that Muhammad Ali, the Egyptian Pasha of the Ottoman Empire, because he was dissatisfied with the Ottoman Sultan’s failure to keep his promise of appointing the title of Governor of Syria and Crete to him, has made a slogan of jihad to rebuild the Arab Empire and sent his son Ibrahim to lead 30,000 Egyptian troops out of the Sinai Peninsula and straight into Palestine and Syria.
Today, the Egyptian army has conquered Arish and Gaza in quick succession, and is currently besieging Jaffa, while the sheikhs of Lebanon and Syria have welcomed the arrival of the Egyptian army, and they seem to be happy to break away from the Ottoman Empire with Ali’s help. From the current news coming out of the Ottoman court, it seems that the Ottoman Sultan Mahmud II is deploying his troops and sending people to negotiate with Ali.
If his negotiations with Ali fail, then the two sides will have to fight in Anatolia. Unfortunately, the Ottoman Empire’s most capable army is that of the Egyptian Pasha Ali, and since the Ottoman navy was all but destroyed by your Admiral Codrington, I’m not optimistic about the prospect of an Ottoman showdown.
And Mahmud II was obviously well aware of this, which is why he sent a letter of distress to Paris as soon as he received news of Ali’s rebellion. The same letter of distress, I believe, had a copy on Viscount Palmerston’s desk. Besides that, there must have been a copy at Metternich and Nicholas I.”
“Yes?” Arthur mused for a while, “With all due respect, if it is as you say, why is there not a whisper in the public opinion of Britain?”
The corner of Talleyrand’s mouth quirked, “So that’s the strange part. The lack of news is to some extent an indication of Viscount Palmerston’s attitude, he doesn’t intend to intervene. But that’s normal, not only does he not intend to intervene, we don’t intend to intervene either.
But I can tell you with certainty that the Czar may intervene. I can understand that Viscount Palmerston does not intend to go deeper when it comes to Poland, but if he intends to press the issue even with the Ottomans and Ali, then I cannot understand it.”
As Arthur heard this, he suddenly remembered General Napier, who had previously left port from Liverpool.
But in front of Talleyrand, he did not tell the whole truth.
Arthur opened his mouth and said: ”Maybe it’s because of the cholera and parliamentary reform issues, and there was just another Liverpool assassination case. As you know, Britannia is in a mess of its own right now, and really has no time to be distracted from other matters.”
“You can’t say that.” Talleyrand shook his finger, “France has only just experienced the July Revolution for a short while, and we’re also on a tight defense against cholera right now, so you can’t generalize between internal and diplomatic issues. Besides, haven’t you ever considered carefully that there are problems that can be entirely man-made?”
“Of course I’ve thought about it.”
Arthur leaned back in his chair, “But for one thing, I don’t have proof, and for another, if this problem is man-made, it’s out of my jurisdiction. As you know, Viscount Palmerston is on good terms with the Russians and is an Irish lover, the Times even referred to him as ‘Cupid from Ireland’, so naturally his deep friendship with Mrs. Levene is well deserved. It would be a dog’s play if I ran and told Viscount Melbourne that the Foreign Secretary’s sweetheart was trying to kill me.”
Hearing this, Talleyrand tapped his fingertips on the tabletop and said, “If you want evidence, I happen to have some here. But since the source of the evidence isn’t very good at being explicit, how you should utilize them depends on your art of speech. Of course, if you’re worried about offending a minister who couldn’t care less about you, you can pretend I didn’t say that.”
Arthur smiled at that, “Mr. Talleyrand, how can I possibly leave when you’ve said so?”
Talleyrand sniffed and also revealed a wry smile as he raised his wine glass and clinked it with Arthur: “Arthur, I knew that you, a young man, is different from the average young man. Of course, if you succeed, then today’s lesson in diplomacy will be taken as me giving you a free lesson.”
“You originally wanted to charge for it?”
“Of course.” Talleyrand straightened his lapel and spoke arrogantly, “Talleyrand’s personal guidance, even if I charge you ten thousand pounds, is it considered expensive? Back then, Metternich spent millions of francs in order to buy some news from me. Young man, I’m already giving it to you very cheaply.”
(End of chapter)