Chapter 576: The Englishman’s Calculations

  Chapter 563 The British Reckoning

On May 20, 1874, the Tsarist government declared war on Poland, and that afternoon the Russian army launched an attack across the border line on the Kingdom of Poland, and the Russo-Polish War broke out once again.

From the occurrence of the Russo-Polish conflict to the outbreak of war before and after less than a week, this efficiency, refreshed Franz’s perception of the tsarist government.

The results of Alexander II’s reforms were already reflected in the efficiency, according to the previous efficiency of the Tsarist government, it could not be managed without several months.

The sudden Russo-Polish War struck many people dumb. The European governments simply could not react in time, and the war had already started.

In London, Prime Minister Gholston only felt exhausted. On the one hand, he was busy with the domestic election, and on the other hand, he had to be concerned about the changing situation in Europe, and even the Irish issue was postponed.

“The war in the Near East is still going on, and the Russians have provoked another war with the Poles. Have they so quickly forgotten the lessons of their last defeat on multiple fronts, and can anyone tell me what happened in between?”

With his rich political experience, Prime Minister Gerston was certain that the Russo-Polish war was definitely not the result of a single conflict. Over the years, conflicts between Russia and Poland had broken out in more than three digits, and the war broke out on this occasion.

And look at the rapid action of the Russians, it is clear that it was premeditated. The war in the Near East distracted Britain’s attention, and the government in London directly believed that the Russians’ preparation for war was targeting the Ottoman Empire.

For this reason, the British were still trying to figure out how to keep the Ottoman Empire. Now there was no need to worry, the Tsarist government had provoked the Russo-Polish War and had no more energy to devote to the Near Eastern War.

Foreign Secretary Maclean: “Your Excellency the Prime Minister, judging from the intelligence we have gathered, the Poles are in big trouble this time.

The Berlin government is not active in sending troops to rescue the Kingdom of Poland, and has not sent troops after the war broke out, and even the military mobilization has shown to be very slow.

The election for the Polish throne is imminent, and Wilhelm I has a very high approval rating, so under normal circumstances his election would be assured.

The biggest obstacle was the current Polish government, which showed some signs that it was ready to intervene in the election by unusual means and kick William I out.

The Prussians were ambitious for Poland, and it was not surprising that they would take advantage of the opportunity to oust the Polish government early.

Analyzing the current situation, Prussia and Russia should have made a deal in secret. The Vienna government has not yet moved, and what part they have played in this we cannot yet make an accurate judgment.

By the way, Prussian diplomats have been very active lately, frequently meeting with the top brass of European countries. Just three days ago, the Prussian Minister in London and I had an in-depth passage on the Polish question.

In order to counter the Russian threat, they want to form a Prussian-Polish confederation, and have asked for our support.

If nothing else, the Prussians have also been in contact with the French and Austrians, I just don’t know if they’ve struck a deal.”

Prime Minister Gerston nodded, this explanation would be right on the money. The Russo-Polish War had suddenly broken out, and to say that Prussia and Poland hadn’t realized it beforehand would make no sense at all.

If Prussia and Russia were secretly colluding, then everything would be explained. The Prussians helped the Czarist government to cover up for the Russian attack on Poland, creating conditions for the Russian army to attack Poland, and it is not surprising that the Polish government was kept in the dark.

Unlike other governments, the Polish government was a hodgepodge in which almost every power had planted a nail.

The Kingdom of Prussia was the most powerful in Poland, and many of the people Dublin government were bought over. In addition, the Polish government itself is a death wish, and the military is like water, to intercept a part of the intelligence is too easy.

Prime Minister Gerston frowned: ”If the Austrians are involved, then it is the fourth time that Prussia, Russia, and Austria divide Poland.

This is not a good sign, let them continue, I’m afraid that there won’t be many countries left in the end on the European continent.

If the Austrians aren’t involved, then what local benefits have Prussia and Russia come up with in exchange for the Vienna government’s acquiescence?

Likewise, how many favors did the Berlin government promise the French in exchange for the Paris government’s support, or maybe the Prussians didn’t have their support.

All these questions have to be clarified, and I don’t think that the Prussians and Russians were able to partition the Kingdom of Poland privately without obtaining an understanding from France and Austria.

The benefits of being able to buy off France and Austria were definitely not small, Prussia and Russia were poor, with average industrial and economic strength, and the promises shouldn’t have been economic, so the answer is crying out to be answered.

No matter what, we can’t let their deal be made, or else France and Austria will be completely bigger.”

The foreign policy of the British had always followed their interests, and when analyzing problems, they would also take in a great deal of interest.

With this method of analysis, many obscure issues became clear, and by directly tracing the interests one was able to know a lot of things.

The strategy of a great power cannot be hidden at all, and countless pairs of eyes are staring at it? However, any country can not have only one set of strategies, there are also many strategies in the primary and secondary, and this order, or with the changes in the international situation and change.

Currently recognized by European countries: the most important strategy of the French is to digest the Italian region, followed by the expansion to Central Europe, to seize the territory west of the Rhine.

Austria’s most important strategy was to unify the German region, mainly the German Federal Empire, which had high popular support, and only secondarily to expand into the Ottoman Empire.

Because of the interlocking of European countries, the French second strategy could not be implemented, and Austria’s explicitly most important strategy, likewise, could not be carried out.

But once the French and Austrians reached a compromise, Prussia and Russia and then acquiesced in their actions, then the situation is very different, the remaining countries want to oppose can not do.

Finance Minister Lalique Lloyd: “The situation is not that bad, if it comes to that, France and Austria will have to fight it out.

Obviously, neither France nor Austria is ready for war right now. I don’t think they’re going to break out into war, at least not until the clearances are completed.

Of course, in order to avoid that, I think it’s necessary to strengthen the German Federal Empire a bit.

If the Prussians want to annex Poland, just let them give up the Rhineland. It’s all an enclave to Prussia anyway, and it’s still being watched by the French.

Instead of leaving it to the French to build up their strength, it would be better to throw it to the German Federal Empire, and then France and Austria will just have to keep each other in check.”

This is a yang conspiracy, now the French empire as a day, as their neighbors will be a tragedy, the pressure of national defense increased greatly.

The Rhineland region was just an enclave, and with the Russian Empire as a major enemy to the east, the Kingdom of Prussia would be powerless to resist once the French decided to make their move.

Since it could not be preserved, the Rhineland region’s status in the mind of the Berlin government dropped considerably, and in exchange for the annexation of the Kingdom of Poland, it was expected that many people would agree.

By giving the Rhineland to the German Federal Empire, the British also had no good intentions. Once the Rhineland was incorporated into the German Confederation, France and Austria could only keep each other in check.

Even if the Vienna government wanted to compromise and divide the enlarged German Federal Empire with the French, the German people would not agree!

Nationalism determines that once the French hit the idea of the Rhineland region, Austria must stand on the position of the German Federation, the Vienna government simply do not dare to make concessions.

On the contrary, Austria wanted to annex the German Federal Empire, and the French could not agree. How could France’s strategic security be guaranteed by allowing Austria’s power to extend west of the Rhine?

Unless one side fell, the other side’s aim could not be realized. Against this background, the British could play a balancing act between France and Austria.

Whether there would be an imbalance of power between France and Austria was a matter for the future. The foreign policy of the government in London has never been to focus on the present, rather than chasing that nebulous future.

No one can guarantee what will happen decades or centuries from now. Today is an ally, tomorrow may be an enemy, the day after tomorrow may become an ally, diplomatic planning for a rainy day is a joke.

Prime Minister Gerston: “This issue is not urgent, first leak the information to the German Confederation, want to obtain the Rhineland region, they must also pay a price.

After getting the Rhineland region, the strength of the German Confederation will be greatly enhanced, and in the European continent is only second to Spain’s power.

We have to work hard to persuade the Prussians for them, and also to deal with the French, they can’t pay no price at all!”

In a short time, Prime Minister Gerston made his judgment. There was a very high probability that the Prussians would give up the Rhineland, which meant that they could get rid of the French threat.

As for the losses brought about, it was entirely possible for the German Federal Empire to make up for it. The German Federal Empire was almost always the richest region in Germany, with much stronger finances than the Berlin government, and there was little problem in selling it for a good price.

With this money, many problems were solved. The Kingdom of Prussia no longer had no chance of winning the next Russo-Prussian War.

As a broker, Britain could also make a political profit and expand its influence in the German Confederation.

……

What was happening inside the London government, the outside world naturally knew nothing about, everyone was caught up in the war.

The Near East War and the Prussian-Polish War broke out at the same time, and everyone was waiting for the reaction of Prussia and Austria. Many people were speculating whether the European continent would trigger a full-scale war.

Prussia, Poland, and the Ottoman Empire could be seen as allies, and they were just a treaty away from fighting the Russians.

Russia and Austria were also allies, and theoretically the Tsarist government now had a chance to bring Austria down. Once a full-scale war breaks out between the two sides, the Popes + Ottomans will certainly not be able to beat Russia + Austria, so they will have to pull someone down.

At this point, the fantasy should end. on May 23, 1874, the Austrian foreign ministry made its position clear: the government of Vienna was absolutely neutral in the Prussian-Polish war.

Now everyone could rest assured that the so-called total war in Europe did not exist, and small countries did not have to worry about taking sides.

Ankara, the decision of the Vienna government was a great disappointment to Abdul Aziz I. Originally, he was counting on the outbreak of a continental war to share their military pressure.

Now there was no need to think about it, none of the European countries were stupid, who would want to fight without benefits? The Vienna government’s neutrality in the Russo-Polish War did not come as a surprise to anyone.

It was very difficult to make territorial expansion in continental Europe, and the juridical basis was the biggest problem. Austria could have no juridical basis for Poland, occupying land was not legal at all.

This is not the same as in the Balkans expansion, from the Ottoman Empire to grab land do not need to worry about legal issues, do not have to worry about public opinion condemnation. The government in Vienna had the title of “liberator”, not aggressor.

Grabbing Poland was a different matter. Even though the Greater Poland was not very popular, it was still a recognized sovereign state, and grabbing the territory of the Kingdom of Poland was an invasion.

It’s normal for Austria to have no interest in the Polish region, since it can’t take over the territory and the Polish government is so poor that it can’t even recover its military expenses by starting a war.

(End of chapter)